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Craig Perry v David Wells (Tue 08 May 2012)

Match won by David Wells. Result: 10-15,14-16,15-8,15-8,8-15.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,568, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for David Wells: 1,722, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
David Wells to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Craig Perry.

David Wells won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wells played 8% better than Craig Perry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wells actually played at a level of 1,704 and Craig Perry at a level of 1,585. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wells changes to -0.8% and Craig Perry changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wells becomes -0.7% and for Craig Perry becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for David Wells is -0.4% and for Craig Perry is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wells: 88%, Craig Perry: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wells: 87%, Craig Perry: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 1,574, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for David Wells: 1,712, level confidence: 87%.