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Paul Drakes v Ian Lennox (Tue 08 May 2012)

Match won by Ian Lennox. Result: 15-6,14-16,12-15,13-15.

Starting level for Paul Drakes: 886, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ian Lennox: 727, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Paul Drakes to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Ian Lennox.

Ian Lennox won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Lennox played 16% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Lennox actually played at a level of 863 and Paul Drakes at a level of 747. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Lennox changes to +15% and Paul Drakes changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Lennox becomes +9% and for Paul Drakes becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Ian Lennox is +5.8% and for Paul Drakes is -6.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Lennox: 85%, Paul Drakes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Lennox: 71%, Paul Drakes: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Drakes: 834, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Ian Lennox: 768, level confidence: 71%.