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Gareth Jones v Peter Bonser (Thu 11 Feb 2010)

Match won by Gareth Jones. Result: 15-3,13-15,15-10,15-13.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,163, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Peter Bonser: 642, level confidence: 10%.
Gareth Jones to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Peter Bonser.

Gareth Jones won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Jones played 30% better than Peter Bonser in this match.

As Gareth Jones has played below his allowed range at 884, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Gareth Jones would normally have been playing at level 1,054 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Bonser played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Jones changes to -0.6% and Peter Bonser changes to +8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Jones becomes -0.5% and for Peter Bonser becomes +5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Gareth Jones is -0.4% and for Peter Bonser is +4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Jones: 84%, Peter Bonser: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Jones: 71%, Peter Bonser: 27%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,157, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Peter Bonser: 670, level confidence: 27%.