Jan Brynjolffssen v Michael Broadbent (Tue 08 May 2012)
Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 14-16,15-9,15-7,17-15.
Starting level for
Jan Brynjolffssen:
1,750, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Michael Broadbent:
1,426, level confidence: 44%.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Michael Broadbent.
Jan Brynjolffssen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played
27% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Brynjolffssen actually played at a level of
1,777 and Michael Broadbent at a level of
1,404. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen changes to +0.9% and Michael Broadbent changes to -1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen becomes +0.7% and for Michael Broadbent becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen is +0.5% and for Michael Broadbent is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 82%, Michael Broadbent: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 81%, Michael Broadbent: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen:
1,756, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent:
1,413, level confidence: 65%.