Lesley Garner v Louise Russell (Mon 22 Feb 2010)
Match won by Lesley Garner. Result: 9-15,15-1,15-7,15-9.
Starting level for
Lesley Garner:
345, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Louise Russell:
235, level confidence: 54%.
Lesley Garner to win as she is currently playing
47% better than Louise Russell.
Lesley Garner won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lesley Garner played
39% better than Louise Russell in this match.
In this case, Lesley Garner played at level 329 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lesley Garner would normally have been playing at level 330 (based on typical behaviour), Louise Russell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lesley Garner changes to 0% and Louise Russell changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lesley Garner becomes 0% and for Louise Russell becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Lesley Garner is 0% and for Louise Russell is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lesley Garner: 80%, Louise Russell: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lesley Garner: 78%, Louise Russell: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lesley Garner:
344, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Louise Russell:
235, level confidence: 71%.