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Hilary Birt v Jessica Foster (Mon 22 Feb 2010)

Match won by Hilary Birt. Result: 15-13,15-8,11-15,13-15,15-12.

Starting level for Hilary Birt: 189, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jessica Foster: 128, level confidence: 60%.
Hilary Birt to win as she is currently playing 48% better than Jessica Foster.

Hilary Birt won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hilary Birt played 10% better than Jessica Foster in this match.

As Hilary Birt has played below her allowed range at 155, her level reduction is 10.1% before damping. On the assumption that Hilary Birt would normally have been playing at level 180 (based on typical behaviour), Jessica Foster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 10.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hilary Birt changes to -6.5% and Jessica Foster changes to +10.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hilary Birt becomes -4.8% and for Jessica Foster becomes +6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Hilary Birt is -3.5% and for Jessica Foster is +5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hilary Birt: 86%, Jessica Foster: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hilary Birt: 74%, Jessica Foster: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hilary Birt: 182, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jessica Foster: 134, level confidence: 67%.