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Emma Elkington v Debbie Clapp (Mon 22 Feb 2010)

Match won by Debbie Clapp. Result: 12-15,6-15,11-15.

Starting level for Emma Elkington: 123, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Debbie Clapp: 142, level confidence: 58%.
Debbie Clapp to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Emma Elkington.

Debbie Clapp won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Debbie Clapp played 55% better than Emma Elkington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Debbie Clapp actually played at a level of 165 and Emma Elkington at a level of 106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Debbie Clapp changes to +15% and Emma Elkington changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Debbie Clapp becomes +8.7% and for Emma Elkington becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Debbie Clapp is +6.5% and for Emma Elkington is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Elkington is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Debbie Clapp: 76%, Emma Elkington: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Debbie Clapp: 66%, Emma Elkington: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emma Elkington: 119, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Debbie Clapp: 151, level confidence: 66%.