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Mike Hawkes v David Lloyd (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Mike Hawkes. Result: 16-14,15-12,6-15,15-12.

Starting level for Mike Hawkes: 1,311, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 905, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mike Hawkes to win as he is currently playing 45% better than David Lloyd.

Mike Hawkes won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Hawkes played 16% better than David Lloyd in this match.

As Mike Hawkes has played below his allowed range at 1,119, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Hawkes would normally have been playing at level 1,257 (based on typical behaviour), David Lloyd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Hawkes changes to -4.6% and David Lloyd changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Hawkes becomes -3.5% and for David Lloyd becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Mike Hawkes is -2.6% and for David Lloyd is +4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Hawkes: 90%, David Lloyd: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Hawkes: 81%, David Lloyd: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Hawkes: 1,276, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 940, level confidence: 76%.