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Sid Newbon v Matt McGill (Wed 09 May 2012)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 12-15,5-15,6-15.

Starting level for Sid Newbon: 958, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,465, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Sid Newbon.

Matt McGill won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 96% better than Sid Newbon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt McGill actually played at a level of 1,657 and Sid Newbon at a level of 847. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to +9.2% and Sid Newbon changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes +5.2% and for Sid Newbon becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is +3.4% and for Sid Newbon is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 84%, Sid Newbon: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 75%, Sid Newbon: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sid Newbon: 917, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Matt McGill: 1,512, level confidence: 75%.