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Peter Newman v Louis Drakes (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Peter Newman. Result: 15-5,15-6,15-8.

Starting level for Peter Newman: 2,158, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Louis Drakes: 1,876, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Peter Newman to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Louis Drakes.

Peter Newman won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Newman played 137% better than Louis Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Newman actually played at a level of 3,097 and Louis Drakes at a level of 1,307. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Newman changes to +34% and Louis Drakes changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Newman becomes +12.9% and for Louis Drakes becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Peter Newman is +9.7% and for Louis Drakes is -11%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Louis Drakes is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Newman: 91%, Louis Drakes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Newman: 63%, Louis Drakes: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Newman: 2,364, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Louis Drakes: 1,738, level confidence: 59%.