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Tom Brady v Geoff Farrell (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tom Brady. Result: 16-14,15-12,13-15,15-13.

Starting level for Tom Brady: 969, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Geoff Farrell: 713, level confidence: 63%.
Tom Brady to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Geoff Farrell.

Tom Brady won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Brady played 20% better than Geoff Farrell in this match.

As Tom Brady has played below his allowed range at 879, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Brady would normally have been playing at level 940 (based on typical behaviour), Geoff Farrell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Brady changes to -2.3% and Geoff Farrell changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Brady becomes -2.3% and for Geoff Farrell becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tom Brady is -1.8% and for Geoff Farrell is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Brady: 82%, Geoff Farrell: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Brady: 77%, Geoff Farrell: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Brady: 951, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Geoff Farrell: 731, level confidence: 75%.