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Karl Pyle v Nigel Richardson (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Nigel Richardson. Result: 13-15,12-15,7-15.

Starting level for Karl Pyle: 1,811, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nigel Richardson: 2,852, level confidence: 41%.
Nigel Richardson to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Karl Pyle.

Nigel Richardson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nigel Richardson played 45% better than Karl Pyle in this match.

In this case, Nigel Richardson played at level 2,659 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nigel Richardson would normally have been playing at level 2,685 (based on typical behaviour), Karl Pyle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nigel Richardson changes to 0% and Karl Pyle changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nigel Richardson becomes 0% and for Karl Pyle becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Nigel Richardson is 0% and for Karl Pyle is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nigel Richardson: 64%, Karl Pyle: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nigel Richardson: 61%, Karl Pyle: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Pyle: 1,813, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nigel Richardson: 2,848, level confidence: 61%.