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Keith Ragg v Trudy Chalkley (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Keith Ragg. Result: 15-12,15-17,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Keith Ragg: 1,196, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Trudy Chalkley: 760, level confidence: 62%.
Keith Ragg to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Trudy Chalkley.

Keith Ragg won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Ragg played 23% better than Trudy Chalkley in this match.

As Keith Ragg has played below his allowed range at 990, his level reduction is 5.6% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Ragg would normally have been playing at level 1,126 (based on typical behaviour), Trudy Chalkley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 7.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Ragg changes to -3.6% and Trudy Chalkley changes to +7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Ragg becomes -3.1% and for Trudy Chalkley becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Keith Ragg is -2.3% and for Trudy Chalkley is +4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Ragg: 87%, Trudy Chalkley: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Ragg: 77%, Trudy Chalkley: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Ragg: 1,167, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Trudy Chalkley: 789, level confidence: 70%.