Robin Aris v Anthony Palmer (Tue 15 May 2012)
Match won by Robin Aris. Result: 13-15,15-11,15-10,15-5.
Starting level for
Robin Aris:
2,019, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for
Anthony Palmer:
1,688, level confidence: 38%.
Robin Aris to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Anthony Palmer.
Robin Aris won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin Aris played
30% better than Anthony Palmer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin Aris actually played at a level of
2,108 and Anthony Palmer at a level of
1,616. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin Aris changes to +3.7% and Anthony Palmer changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin Aris becomes +2.6% and for Anthony Palmer becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Robin Aris is +1.7% and for Anthony Palmer is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin Aris: 65%, Anthony Palmer: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin Aris: 62%, Anthony Palmer: 59%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robin Aris:
2,049, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Anthony Palmer:
1,655, level confidence: 59%.