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Simon Maxen v Jill Gaskell (Tue 23 Feb 2010)

Match won by Simon Maxen. Result: 15-5,15-11,15-3.

Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,709, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jill Gaskell: 1,344, level confidence: 62%.
Simon Maxen to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Jill Gaskell.

Simon Maxen won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Maxen played 137% better than Jill Gaskell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Maxen actually played at a level of 2,332 and Jill Gaskell at a level of 985. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Maxen changes to +28% and Jill Gaskell changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Maxen becomes +11.8% and for Jill Gaskell becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Simon Maxen is +8.9% and for Jill Gaskell is -10.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jill Gaskell is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Maxen: 84%, Jill Gaskell: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Maxen: 62%, Jill Gaskell: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,858, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Jill Gaskell: 1,268, level confidence: 58%.