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Richard Carr v Tim Delderfield (Tue 15 May 2012)

Match won by Tim Delderfield. Result: 6-15,11-15,6-15.

Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,347, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Delderfield: 2,219, level confidence: 38%.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Tim Delderfield.

Tim Delderfield won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Delderfield played 96% better than Richard Carr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Delderfield actually played at a level of 3,192 and Richard Carr at a level of 1,632. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Delderfield changes to +42% and Richard Carr changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Delderfield becomes +15.3% and for Richard Carr becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Tim Delderfield is +9.9% and for Richard Carr is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Delderfield: 62%, Richard Carr: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Delderfield: 43%, Richard Carr: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Carr: 2,244, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Tim Delderfield: 2,436, level confidence: 43%.