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Justin Turnpenny v Marcus Gray (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Justin Turnpenny. Result: 16-14,15-7,15-10.

Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,111, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Gray: 581, level confidence: 64%.
Justin Turnpenny to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Marcus Gray.

Justin Turnpenny won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Justin Turnpenny played 51% better than Marcus Gray in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Justin Turnpenny was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 857 and 1,111 without affecting his level.

In this case, Justin Turnpenny played at level 931 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Justin Turnpenny would normally have been playing at level 990 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Gray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny changes to 0% and Marcus Gray changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny becomes 0% and for Marcus Gray becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Justin Turnpenny is 0% and for Marcus Gray is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Justin Turnpenny: 88%, Marcus Gray: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Justin Turnpenny: 78%, Marcus Gray: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,109, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Marcus Gray: 597, level confidence: 71%.