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Colin Young v Craig Millard (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Colin Young. Result: 10-15,8-15,15-9,16-14,15-8.

Starting level for Colin Young: 1,159, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Craig Millard: 1,233, level confidence: 53%.
Craig Millard to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Colin Young.

Colin Young won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Colin Young played 9% better than Craig Millard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Colin Young actually played at a level of 1,247 and Craig Millard at a level of 1,146. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Colin Young changes to +5.2% and Craig Millard changes to -7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Colin Young becomes +3.8% and for Craig Millard becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Colin Young is +2.9% and for Craig Millard is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Colin Young: 87%, Craig Millard: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Colin Young: 81%, Craig Millard: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Colin Young: 1,191, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Craig Millard: 1,189, level confidence: 68%.