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Daniel Wolfson v Michael Herd (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Daniel Wolfson. Result: 15-11,15-6,15-11.

Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,807, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Herd: 1,176, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Daniel Wolfson to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Michael Herd.

Daniel Wolfson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Wolfson played 61% better than Michael Herd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Wolfson actually played at a level of 1,848 and Michael Herd at a level of 1,150. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson changes to +1.7% and Michael Herd changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson becomes +1.4% and for Michael Herd becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson is +1% and for Michael Herd is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Wolfson: 87%, Michael Herd: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Wolfson: 85%, Michael Herd: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,823, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Michael Herd: 1,159, level confidence: 83%.