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Charlie Johnson v Peter Foley (Thu 17 May 2012)

Match won by Charlie Johnson. Result: 15-7,15-11,15-8.

Starting level for Charlie Johnson: 5,932, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Peter Foley: 2,668, level confidence: 29%.
Charlie Johnson to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Peter Foley.

Charlie Johnson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Johnson played 73% better than Peter Foley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Johnson was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,021 and 5,932 without affecting his level.

In this case, Charlie Johnson played at level 4,818 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlie Johnson would normally have been playing at level 5,028 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Foley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Johnson changes to 0% and Peter Foley changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Johnson becomes 0% and for Peter Foley becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Charlie Johnson is 0% and for Peter Foley is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Johnson: 71%, Peter Foley: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Johnson: 63%, Peter Foley: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Johnson: 5,923, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Peter Foley: 2,699, level confidence: 47%.