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Tim Webster v Robert Brooks (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Robert Brooks. Result: 9-15,16-14,16-14,7-15,14-16.

Starting level for Tim Webster: 1,249, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,744, level confidence: 68%.
Robert Brooks to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Tim Webster.

Robert Brooks won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brooks played 12% better than Tim Webster in this match.

As Robert Brooks has played below his allowed range at 1,504, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Robert Brooks would normally have been playing at level 1,684 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Webster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brooks changes to -5.2% and Tim Webster changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brooks becomes -3.3% and for Tim Webster becomes +5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Robert Brooks is -2.5% and for Tim Webster is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brooks: 83%, Tim Webster: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brooks: 74%, Tim Webster: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Webster: 1,294, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,699, level confidence: 74%.