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Jonathan Sandford v Len Froggit (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Jonathan Sandford. Result: 15-11,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for Jonathan Sandford: 1,002, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Len Froggit: 1,135, level confidence: 44%.
Len Froggit to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Jonathan Sandford.

Jonathan Sandford won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Sandford played 37% better than Len Froggit in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Sandford actually played at a level of 1,250 and Len Froggit at a level of 910. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Sandford changes to +13% and Len Froggit changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Sandford becomes +7.9% and for Len Froggit becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Jonathan Sandford is +5.9% and for Len Froggit is -8.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Len Froggit is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Sandford: 88%, Len Froggit: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Sandford: 71%, Len Froggit: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathan Sandford: 1,060, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Len Froggit: 1,071, level confidence: 53%.