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Melvyn Lee v Manny Hopkins (Wed 24 Feb 2010)

Match won by Melvyn Lee. Result: 15-11,15-13,15-10.

Starting level for Melvyn Lee: 936, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Manny Hopkins: 1,266, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Manny Hopkins to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Melvyn Lee.

Melvyn Lee won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Melvyn Lee played 40% better than Manny Hopkins in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Melvyn Lee actually played at a level of 1,287 and Manny Hopkins at a level of 921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Melvyn Lee changes to +32% and Manny Hopkins changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Melvyn Lee becomes +16.4% and for Manny Hopkins becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Melvyn Lee is +12% and for Manny Hopkins is -8.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Melvyn Lee is limited to +10% and Manny Hopkins is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Melvyn Lee: 77%, Manny Hopkins: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Melvyn Lee: 56%, Manny Hopkins: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Melvyn Lee: 1,028, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Manny Hopkins: 1,204, level confidence: 64%.