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Steve Eccles v Tim Oram (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tim Oram. Result: 13-15,15-13,14-16,16-14,14-16.

Starting level for Steve Eccles: 1,424, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,458, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tim Oram to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Steve Eccles.

Tim Oram won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Oram played 8% better than Steve Eccles in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Oram actually played at a level of 1,499 and Steve Eccles at a level of 1,385. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Oram changes to +2.1% and Steve Eccles changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Oram becomes +1.8% and for Steve Eccles becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tim Oram is +1.3% and for Steve Eccles is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Oram: 90%, Steve Eccles: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Oram: 88%, Steve Eccles: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Eccles: 1,397, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tim Oram: 1,475, level confidence: 88%.