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Julian Vecchio v Akin Olunloyo (Tue 22 May 2012)

Match won by Julian Vecchio. Result: 15-6,15-12,17-15.

Starting level for Julian Vecchio: 1,449, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,353, level confidence: 68%.
Julian Vecchio to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Akin Olunloyo.

Julian Vecchio won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Vecchio played 47% better than Akin Olunloyo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Vecchio actually played at a level of 1,695 and Akin Olunloyo at a level of 1,157. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio changes to +16% and Akin Olunloyo changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Vecchio becomes +8.1% and for Akin Olunloyo becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Julian Vecchio is +5.3% and for Akin Olunloyo is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Vecchio: 76%, Akin Olunloyo: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Vecchio: 65%, Akin Olunloyo: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Vecchio: 1,523, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,291, level confidence: 70%.