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Duncan Hill v Gavin Bone (Tue 22 May 2012)

Match won by Duncan Hill. Result: 16-14,15-8,12-15,15-4.

Starting level for Duncan Hill: 1,385, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Gavin Bone: 990, level confidence: 69%.
Duncan Hill to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Gavin Bone.

Duncan Hill won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Hill played 30% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

In this case, Duncan Hill played at level 1,314 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Duncan Hill would normally have been playing at level 1,337 (based on typical behaviour), Gavin Bone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Hill changes to 0% and Gavin Bone changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Hill becomes 0% and for Gavin Bone becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Duncan Hill is 0% and for Gavin Bone is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Hill: 76%, Gavin Bone: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Hill: 73%, Gavin Bone: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Hill: 1,383, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Gavin Bone: 996, level confidence: 80%.