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Tim Dixon v Peter Gunter (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tim Dixon. Result: 15-11,15-5,15-12.

Starting level for Tim Dixon: 3,479, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Peter Gunter: 3,722, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Peter Gunter to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Tim Dixon.

Tim Dixon won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Dixon played 61% better than Peter Gunter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Dixon actually played at a level of 4,562 and Peter Gunter at a level of 2,838. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Dixon changes to +30% and Peter Gunter changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Dixon becomes +9.9% and for Peter Gunter becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tim Dixon is +7.4% and for Peter Gunter is -6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Dixon: 77%, Peter Gunter: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Dixon: 59%, Peter Gunter: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Dixon: 3,732, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Peter Gunter: 3,512, level confidence: 64%.