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Matt McGill v Gareth Jones (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 10-15,15-11,11-15,17-15,15-12.

Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,447, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,157, level confidence: 67%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Gareth Jones.

Matt McGill won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 8% better than Gareth Jones in this match.

As Matt McGill has played below his allowed range at 1,317, his level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that Matt McGill would normally have been playing at level 1,423 (based on typical behaviour), Gareth Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to -4.6% and Gareth Jones changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes -3.3% and for Gareth Jones becomes +4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is -2.5% and for Gareth Jones is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 87%, Gareth Jones: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 81%, Gareth Jones: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt McGill: 1,410, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,193, level confidence: 76%.