Nick Ridgwaysnr v Kenny Holden (Thu 25 Feb 2010)
Match won by Nick Ridgwaysnr. Result: 15-11,15-9,13-15,15-10.
Starting level for
Nick Ridgwaysnr:
1,489, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Kenny Holden:
1,232, level confidence: 63%.
Nick Ridgwaysnr to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Kenny Holden.
Nick Ridgwaysnr won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Ridgwaysnr played
26% better than Kenny Holden in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Ridgwaysnr actually played at a level of
1,522 and Kenny Holden at a level of
1,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr changes to +1.8% and Kenny Holden changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr becomes +1.5% and for Kenny Holden becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr is +1.1% and for Kenny Holden is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Ridgwaysnr: 85%, Kenny Holden: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Ridgwaysnr: 83%, Kenny Holden: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Ridgwaysnr:
1,504, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Kenny Holden:
1,213, level confidence: 78%.