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Tim Delderfield v Marvin Rust (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tim Delderfield. Result: 15-13,13-15,15-4,12-15,15-13.

Starting level for Tim Delderfield: 2,325, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,359, level confidence: 60%.
Marvin Rust to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Tim Delderfield.

Tim Delderfield won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Delderfield played 12% better than Marvin Rust in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Delderfield actually played at a level of 2,475 and Marvin Rust at a level of 2,216. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Delderfield changes to +4.8% and Marvin Rust changes to -6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Delderfield becomes +2.8% and for Marvin Rust becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tim Delderfield is +2.1% and for Marvin Rust is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Delderfield: 90%, Marvin Rust: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Delderfield: 85%, Marvin Rust: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Delderfield: 2,371, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,297, level confidence: 73%.