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Declan Osborne v Jack Jago (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Jack Jago. Result: 15-12,12-15,12-15,11-15.

Starting level for Declan Osborne: 1,946, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jack Jago: 2,583, level confidence: 50%.
Jack Jago to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Declan Osborne.

Jack Jago won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Jago played 21% better than Declan Osborne in this match.

As Jack Jago has played below his allowed range at 2,399, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Jago would normally have been playing at level 2,516 (based on typical behaviour), Declan Osborne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Jago changes to -1.3% and Declan Osborne changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Jago becomes -1% and for Declan Osborne becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Jack Jago is -0.7% and for Declan Osborne is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Jago: 71%, Declan Osborne: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Jago: 67%, Declan Osborne: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan Osborne: 1,967, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jack Jago: 2,561, level confidence: 67%.