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Fred Cooke v Geoff Taylor (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Geoff Taylor. Result: 9-15,10-15,7-15.

Starting level for Fred Cooke: 1,860, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Geoff Taylor: 3,213, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Geoff Taylor to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Fred Cooke.

Geoff Taylor won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Geoff Taylor played 73% better than Fred Cooke in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Geoff Taylor actually played at a level of 3,216 and Fred Cooke at a level of 1,858. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Geoff Taylor changes to 0% and Fred Cooke changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Geoff Taylor becomes +0% and for Fred Cooke becomes 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Geoff Taylor: 85%, Fred Cooke: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Geoff Taylor: 85%, Fred Cooke: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fred Cooke: 1,856, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Geoff Taylor: 3,209, level confidence: 85%.