Simon Totten v Cesar Ramirez-Molina (Thu 25 Feb 2010)
Match won by Simon Totten. Result: 15-12,16-14,7-15,15-12.
Starting level for
Simon Totten:
1,380, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Cesar Ramirez-Molina:
1,118, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Simon Totten to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.
Simon Totten won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Totten played
17% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina in this match.
As Simon Totten has played below his allowed range at 1,320, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Totten would normally have been playing at level 1,360 (based on typical behaviour), Cesar Ramirez-Molina played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Totten changes to -1% and Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Totten becomes -0.9% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Simon Totten is -0.7% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Totten: 89%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Totten: 87%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Totten:
1,369, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina:
1,131, level confidence: 86%.