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Glenn McClelland v Tim Kipling (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tim Kipling. Result: 2-15,5-15,9-15.

Starting level for Glenn McClelland: 1,964, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Tim Kipling: 2,600, level confidence: 47%.
Tim Kipling to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Glenn McClelland.

Tim Kipling won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Kipling played 181% better than Glenn McClelland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Kipling actually played at a level of 3,790 and Glenn McClelland at a level of 1,347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Kipling changes to +32% and Glenn McClelland changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Kipling becomes +11.4% and for Glenn McClelland becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tim Kipling is +8.5% and for Glenn McClelland is -10.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Glenn McClelland is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Kipling: 69%, Glenn McClelland: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Kipling: 47%, Glenn McClelland: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Glenn McClelland: 1,783, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Tim Kipling: 2,818, level confidence: 47%.