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Chris Stanley v Tom Walker (Thu 25 Feb 2010)

Match won by Tom Walker. Result: 15-12,14-16,13-15,9-15.

Starting level for Chris Stanley: 3,082, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Tom Walker: 5,773, level confidence: 40%.
Tom Walker to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Chris Stanley.

Tom Walker won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Walker played 21% better than Chris Stanley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Walker was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,522 and 5,773 without affecting his level.

As Tom Walker has played below his allowed range at 4,111, his level reduction is 10% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Walker would normally have been playing at level 5,179 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Stanley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Walker changes to -7.2% and Chris Stanley changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Walker becomes -2.9% and for Chris Stanley becomes +4%.

Given Tom Walker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Tom Walker is -2.1% and for Chris Stanley is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Walker: 64%, Chris Stanley: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Walker: 51%, Chris Stanley: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Stanley: 3,170, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Tom Walker: 5,647, level confidence: 51%.