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James Cooper v Matt McGill (Wed 23 May 2012)

Match won by James Cooper. Result: 15-12,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for James Cooper: 1,247, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,438, level confidence: 59%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 15% better than James Cooper.

James Cooper won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Cooper played 33% better than Matt McGill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Cooper actually played at a level of 1,542 and Matt McGill at a level of 1,163. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Cooper changes to +22% and Matt McGill changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Cooper becomes +10.9% and for Matt McGill becomes -10.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for James Cooper is +7.1% and for Matt McGill is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt McGill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Cooper: 76%, Matt McGill: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Cooper: 61%, Matt McGill: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Cooper: 1,334, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Matt McGill: 1,367, level confidence: 62%.