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Mike Lindores v Mark Oppen (Wed 23 May 2012)

Match won by Mark Oppen. Result: 15-13,18-16,9-15,8-15,5-15.

Starting level for Mike Lindores: 1,126, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Oppen: 1,918, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mark Oppen to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Mike Lindores.

Mark Oppen won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Oppen played 16% better than Mike Lindores in this match.

As Mark Oppen has played below his allowed range at 1,441, his level reduction is 10.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Oppen would normally have been playing at level 1,770 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Lindores played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Oppen changes to -7.7% and Mike Lindores changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Oppen becomes -4.2% and for Mike Lindores becomes +6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Mark Oppen is -2.7% and for Mike Lindores is +4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Oppen: 84%, Mike Lindores: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Oppen: 70%, Mike Lindores: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Lindores: 1,172, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mark Oppen: 1,865, level confidence: 70%.