Anton Snell v Colin Taylor (Tue 29 May 2012)
Match won by Anton Snell. Result: 15-5,15-10,15-10.
Starting level for
Anton Snell:
954, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Colin Taylor:
547, level confidence: 10%.
Anton Snell to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Colin Taylor.
Anton Snell won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anton Snell played
80% better than Colin Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anton Snell actually played at a level of
969 and Colin Taylor at a level of
538. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anton Snell changes to 0% and Colin Taylor changes to -1.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anton Snell becomes +0.2% and for Colin Taylor becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Anton Snell is 0% and for Colin Taylor is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anton Snell: 71%, Colin Taylor: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anton Snell: 70%, Colin Taylor: 31%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Anton Snell:
954, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Colin Taylor:
542, level confidence: 31%.