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Niel Roake v Martin Miller (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Niel Roake. Result: 15-2,15-5,15-3.

Starting level for Niel Roake: 1,472, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Martin Miller: 612, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Niel Roake to win as he is currently playing 141% better than Martin Miller.

Niel Roake won all of the games and 82% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 350% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Niel Roake played 350% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Niel Roake actually played at a level of 2,013 and Martin Miller at a level of 447. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Niel Roake changes to +22% and Martin Miller changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Niel Roake becomes +10.4% and for Martin Miller becomes -10.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Niel Roake is +6.8% and for Martin Miller is -6.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martin Miller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Niel Roake: 80%, Martin Miller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Niel Roake: 59%, Martin Miller: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Niel Roake: 1,569, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Martin Miller: 582, level confidence: 64%.