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James Armstrong v Paul Cousins (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 15-13,15-9,8-15,13-15,8-15.

Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,739, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Paul Cousins: 1,774, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Cousins to win as he is currently playing 2% better than James Armstrong.

Paul Cousins won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 11% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 1,850 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,668. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to +3.6% and James Armstrong changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes +2.6% and for James Armstrong becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is +1.7% and for James Armstrong is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 85%, James Armstrong: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 82%, James Armstrong: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Armstrong: 1,704, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Paul Cousins: 1,801, level confidence: 82%.