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Phil Power v Dominic Webster (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Phil Power. Result: 15-12,16-14,15-9.

Starting level for Phil Power: 1,708, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,663, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Dominic Webster.

Phil Power won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played 39% better than Dominic Webster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Power actually played at a level of 1,988 and Dominic Webster at a level of 1,428. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to +16% and Dominic Webster changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Power becomes +7.6% and for Dominic Webster becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Phil Power is +4.9% and for Dominic Webster is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 80%, Dominic Webster: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 69%, Dominic Webster: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Power: 1,789, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,627, level confidence: 74%.