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Fiona Cattermole v Emma Elkington (Mon 01 Mar 2010)

Match won by Fiona Cattermole. Result: 15-13,15-10,19-17.

Starting level for Fiona Cattermole: 325, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Emma Elkington: 119, level confidence: 67%.
Fiona Cattermole to win as she is currently playing 173% better than Emma Elkington.

Fiona Cattermole won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fiona Cattermole played 33% better than Emma Elkington in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Fiona Cattermole was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 189 and 325 without affecting her level.

As Fiona Cattermole has played below her allowed range at 173, her level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Fiona Cattermole would normally have been playing at level 256 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Elkington played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fiona Cattermole changes to -5.5% and Emma Elkington changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fiona Cattermole becomes -4.3% and for Emma Elkington becomes +8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Fiona Cattermole is -3.2% and for Emma Elkington is +6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fiona Cattermole: 76%, Emma Elkington: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fiona Cattermole: 53%, Emma Elkington: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fiona Cattermole: 319, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Emma Elkington: 126, level confidence: 57%.