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Anne-Maree Dunn v Lesley Garner (Mon 01 Mar 2010)

Match won by Lesley Garner. Result: 13-15,15-7,7-15,15-9,10-15.

Starting level for Anne-Maree Dunn: 217, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lesley Garner: 344, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Lesley Garner to win as she is currently playing 59% better than Anne-Maree Dunn.

Lesley Garner won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lesley Garner played 8% better than Anne-Maree Dunn in this match.

As Lesley Garner has played below her allowed range at 265, her level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Lesley Garner would normally have been playing at level 323 (based on typical behaviour), Anne-Maree Dunn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lesley Garner changes to -9.8% and Anne-Maree Dunn changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lesley Garner becomes -6.4% and for Anne-Maree Dunn becomes +8.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Lesley Garner is -4.7% and for Anne-Maree Dunn is +6.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lesley Garner: 87%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lesley Garner: 72%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anne-Maree Dunn: 230, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lesley Garner: 328, level confidence: 72%.