SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Roy Milne v Nick Newson (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Roy Milne. Result: 15-8,15-5,15-13.

Starting level for Roy Milne: 995, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Nick Newson: 930, level confidence: 68%.
Roy Milne to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Nick Newson.

Roy Milne won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roy Milne played 73% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roy Milne actually played at a level of 1,266 and Nick Newson at a level of 731. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roy Milne changes to +26% and Nick Newson changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roy Milne becomes +14% and for Nick Newson becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Roy Milne is +9.1% and for Nick Newson is -7.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Newson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roy Milne: 76%, Nick Newson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roy Milne: 60%, Nick Newson: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roy Milne: 1,084, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Nick Newson: 884, level confidence: 65%.