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Steve Hambling v Steve Durrant (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Steve Hambling. Result: 15-6,10-15,15-7,9-15,15-10.

Starting level for Steve Hambling: 1,609, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Steve Durrant: 1,371, level confidence: 25%.
Steve Hambling to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Steve Durrant.

Steve Hambling won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Hambling played 13% better than Steve Durrant in this match.

As Steve Hambling has played below his allowed range at 1,563, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Hambling would normally have been playing at level 1,597 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Durrant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Hambling changes to -0.4% and Steve Durrant changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Hambling becomes -0.4% and for Steve Durrant becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Steve Hambling is 0% and for Steve Durrant is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Hambling: 81%, Steve Durrant: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Hambling: 79%, Steve Durrant: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Hambling: 1,603, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Steve Durrant: 1,381, level confidence: 49%.