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Carmel Horgan v Nicky Seabrook (Mon 01 Mar 2010)

Match won by Carmel Horgan. Result: 15-9,16-14,13-15,14-16,15-9.

Starting level for Carmel Horgan: 235, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Nicky Seabrook: 172, level confidence: 61%.
Carmel Horgan to win as she is currently playing 37% better than Nicky Seabrook.

Carmel Horgan won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carmel Horgan played 11% better than Nicky Seabrook in this match.

As Carmel Horgan has played below her allowed range at 205, her level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Carmel Horgan would normally have been playing at level 228 (based on typical behaviour), Nicky Seabrook played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan changes to -5.9% and Nicky Seabrook changes to +7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan becomes -4.5% and for Nicky Seabrook becomes +5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Carmel Horgan is -3.3% and for Nicky Seabrook is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carmel Horgan: 77%, Nicky Seabrook: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carmel Horgan: 70%, Nicky Seabrook: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carmel Horgan: 231, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nicky Seabrook: 178, level confidence: 70%.