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Phil Littlefair v Paul Drakes (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 15-6,15-6,15-12.

Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,550, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Drakes: 845, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Paul Drakes.

Phil Littlefair won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 88% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Littlefair actually played at a level of 1,567 and Paul Drakes at a level of 836. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to +0.7% and Paul Drakes changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes +0.6% and for Paul Drakes becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is +0.4% and for Paul Drakes is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 91%, Paul Drakes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 90%, Paul Drakes: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,554, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Paul Drakes: 839, level confidence: 83%.