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Gavin Bone v Andrew Humphries (Tue 29 May 2012)

Match won by Andrew Humphries. Result: 9-15,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 996, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Humphries: 1,178, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Andrew Humphries to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Gavin Bone.

Andrew Humphries won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Humphries played 73% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Humphries actually played at a level of 1,425 and Gavin Bone at a level of 823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries changes to +19% and Gavin Bone changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries becomes +10% and for Gavin Bone becomes -10.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Andrew Humphries is +6.5% and for Gavin Bone is -6.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gavin Bone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Humphries: 86%, Gavin Bone: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Humphries: 71%, Gavin Bone: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 964, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Andrew Humphries: 1,253, level confidence: 71%.