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Tony Perry v Geoff Farrell (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Geoff Farrell. Result: 5-15,8-15,15-13,3-15.

Starting level for Tony Perry: 663, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for Geoff Farrell: 731, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Geoff Farrell to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Tony Perry.

Geoff Farrell won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 87% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Geoff Farrell played 45% better than Tony Perry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Geoff Farrell actually played at a level of 840 and Tony Perry at a level of 577. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Geoff Farrell changes to +6.7% and Tony Perry changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Geoff Farrell becomes +4.8% and for Tony Perry becomes -8.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Geoff Farrell is +3.6% and for Tony Perry is -6.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Geoff Farrell: 85%, Tony Perry: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Geoff Farrell: 74%, Tony Perry: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tony Perry: 623, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Geoff Farrell: 756, level confidence: 74%.