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Ian Lennox v John Chesters (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by John Chesters. Result: 15-11,3-15,8-15,9-15.

Starting level for Ian Lennox: 978, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for John Chesters: 1,236, level confidence: 64%.
John Chesters to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Ian Lennox.

John Chesters won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played 37% better than Ian Lennox in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of 1,285 and Ian Lennox at a level of 941. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to +3.4% and Ian Lennox changes to -3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +2.9% and for Ian Lennox becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for John Chesters is +2.2% and for Ian Lennox is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 80%, Ian Lennox: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 77%, Ian Lennox: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Lennox: 953, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for John Chesters: 1,261, level confidence: 77%.